Scenario Planning Analysis of BPJS Kesehatan in Facing the Deficit of Social Security Fund for Health

Luqman Azis; Dr. Ir. Rina Djunita Pasaribu, M.Sc., CPM., EPC; Dr. M. Riza Sutjipto

doi:10.18535/ijsrm/v13i05.em19

Abstract

The National Health Insurance (JKN) program organized by BPJS Kesehatan faces sustainability challenges due to the risk of Social Security Fund (DJS) deficits. This risk is triggered by fiscal pressures, membership dynamics, and uncertainty in the external environment. This study aims to analyze scenario planning that can be used by BPJS Kesehatan in responding to these uncertainties and developing adaptive strategies to maintain the sustainability of the JKN program. The research approach used is exploratory qualitative with the TAIDA (Tracking, Analyzing, Imaging, Deciding, Acting) analysis method, with a limited scope up to the Deciding phase. The analysis was strengthened with the PESTEL framework and Porter's Five Forces to map external factors. The results showed three main driving forces (Politics, Economics, Legal) and three critical uncertainties (Rivalry among Competitors, Bargaining Power of Customers, Threat of Substitutes) that formed four future scenarios: BPJS Kesehatan Emas, BPJS Kesehatan Tumbuh, BPJS Kesehatan Tangguh, and BPJS Kesehatan Vulnerable. In response, BPJS Kesehatan is advised to implement five cross-scenario strategies that take into account its core competencies.

Keywords

BPJS Kesehatanscenario planningJKNTAIDADJScross-scenario strategy

References

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[refR-2] Badan Penyelenggara Jaminan Sosial. (2011). Nomor 24 Tahun 2011 Tentang Badan Penyelenggara Jaminan Sosial. Jakarta: Sekretariat Negara.Google Scholar ↗

[refR-3] Badan Penyelenggara Jaminan Sosial. (2011). Undang-Undang Nomor 24 Tahun 2011 tentang Badan Penyelenggara Jaminan Sosial. Tanggal pengundangan: 25 November 2011.Google Scholar ↗

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[refR-20] Prasetio, A., Rahman, D. A., Sary, F. P., Pasaribu, R. D., & Sutjipto, M. R. (2022). The role of Instagram social media marketing activities and brand equity towards airlines customer response. International Journal of Data and Network Science, 6(4), 1195–1200. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.ijdns.2022.6.014DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

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[refR-22] Riawan, T. B. A., Pasaribu, R. D., & Sutjipto, M. R. (2024). Review of scenario planning and future strategy of PT. Telkomsel's fixed mobile convergence (FMC) service implementation. Journal of Multidisciplinary Academic Business Studies, 1(2), 109–123. https://doi.org/10.35912/jomabs.v1i2.1898DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

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