Credit Growth and Investment Strength Could Potentially Put Pressure on Inflation in Indonesia: A Systematic Literature Review

Roni Wiranata; Waspodo Tjipto Subroto; Norida Canda Sakti

doi:10.18535/ijsrm/v13i12.em02

Abstract

This study aims to conduct a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) to analyze and synthesize findings from existing literature on the potential for inflationary pressure in Indonesia stemming from credit growth and investment strength. This study evaluated 10 articles published in reputable journals indexed by Sinta and Scopus between 2012 and 2025. The SLR was conducted by identifying, selecting, and evaluating relevant studies published in the last five years. The synthesis results show that there is a consensus among researchers regarding the positive relationship between this aggregate growth and inflation risk, especially if it is dominated by consumer credit and investment in the non-tradable sector. The policy implications underscore the need for monetary and macroprudential policy coordination to manage liquidity and credit risk without hampering productive investment, which is vital for long-term economic growth.

Keywords

Credit GrowthInvestmentInflationIndonesia

References

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Anwar, A. I., & Akbar, A. (2018). The Effect Of Credit To The Inflation Rate Through Gross Domestic Product In Indonesia. EcceS (Economics, Social, and Development Studies), 5(2), 78. https://doi.org/10.24252/ecc.v5i2.7114DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Bank-Indonesia. (2022). Laporan Perekonomian Indonesia 2022. In BI (p. 230). Bank Indonesia. https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/laporan/Documents/LPI_2022.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.comGoogle Scholar ↗
Borio, C., & Gambacorta, L. (2017). Monetary policy and bank diminishing effectiveness? BIS: Monetary and Economic Department, 612.Google Scholar ↗
Brunnermeier, M. K., & Oehmke, M. (2012). Study on the formation and rheological properties of sucrose stearate lamellar liquid crystals. NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH-Working Paper 18398, 38(1), 1–90. https://doi.org/10.1080/01932691.2016.1147360DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Coker, M. (2025). Short-Term Inflation Forecasting In Sierra Leone: A Comparison of Vector Autoregressive VAR(P), Arimax, And Arima Models. SSRN Electronic Journal, 13(05), 9090–9111. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5289305DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Colunga-Ramos, L. F., & Cepeda, L. E. T. (2023). Effects of Supply and Demand Shocks on the Production and Inflation of Manufactured Goods at the Regional Level in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic *.Google Scholar ↗
Coskun, Y., Sencer Atasoy, B., Morri, G., & Alp, E. (2018). Wealth Effects on Household Final Consumption: Stock and Housing Market Channels. In International Journal of Financial Studies (Vol. 6, Issue 2). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6020057DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Deviana, N. (2014). Analisis Pengaruh Suku Bunga Sbi, Suku Bunga Kredit Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia Periode Tahun 2006-2012 Nyimas Deviana. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 12(2), 81–91.Google Scholar ↗
Eklou, K. (2023). The Anatomy of Monetary Policy Transmission in an Emerging Market. IMF Working Papers, 2023(146), 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400247910.001DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Firmansyah, M., Boedirochminarni, A., Riyanto, W. H., & Tsalasa, A. R. A. (2024). Do Cashless Transactions and Credit Distribution Affect Inflation in Indonesia? Ecoplan, 7(2), 144–153. https://doi.org/10.20527/ecoplan.v7i2.728DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Hunjra, A. I., Azam, M., Wellalage, N. H., & Mishra, T. (2025). Inflation bites: The dynamic interdependence between financial market volatility and energy consumption during pandemic. International Review of Economics & Finance, 104, 104651. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2025.104651DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Kitchenham, B., & Charters, S. (2007). Guidelines for performing Systematic Literature Reviews in Software Engineering. Department of Computer Science University of Durham, UK, 126(5), 1–57. https://doi.org/10.1541/ieejias.126.589DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Krisnanda, G. H., & Loissa, A. F. (2023). Determinants of Credit Growth in Commercial Banks in Indonesia. Journal of Tourism Economics and Policy, 3(4), 282–295. https://doi.org/10.38142/jtep.v3i4.881DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Levrero, E. S., & Deleidi, M. (2017). The money creation process: A theoretical and empirical analysis for the US. MPRA Paper, 81970(2116), 0–33.Google Scholar ↗
Mamuaja, R. C., Saerang, I. S., & Tasik, H. H. D. (2024). Analysis of the Impact of Money Supply, Interest Rates, and Inflation on Bank Credit Growth in Indonesia Pre and Post Covid-19 Pandemic. Jurnal EMBA, 12(3), 892–901.Google Scholar ↗
Martauli, D., Amir, A., & Mustika, C. (2020). Analisis inflasi di lihat dari permintaan dan penawaran di Indonesia Tahun 2000-2018. E-Journal Perdagangan Industri Dan Moneter, 8(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.22437/pim.v8i1.7189DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Muritala, T. (2011). Investment , Inflation and Economic Growth : Empirical Evidence from Nigeria. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 2(5), 68–77. https://doi.org/10.5829/idosi.ijee.2012.03.04.121204DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Nanda Fitria, C., Silvia, V., & Seftarita, C. (2024). Does Bank Credit Fluctuation Affect Inflation? Evidence from Indonesia. International Journal of Finance, Economics and Business, 3(2), 107–119. https://doi.org/10.56225/ijfeb.v3i2.329DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Ngo, T. H. H., Hoang, N. M., & Truong, T. T. (2025). Vietnam’s Inflation During the Period 1995 – 2024 And Some Policy Implications. International Journal of Scientific Research and Management (IJSRM), 13(08), 9486–9493. https://doi.org/10.18535/ijsrm/v13i08.em01DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Purnomo, M. H., & Sudjana, K. (2023). Pengaruh Produk Domestik Bruto, Inflasi, Bi Rate Terhadap Pertumbuhan Kredit Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Bbri). Ekonomi & Bisnis, 22(2), 201–208. https://doi.org/10.32722/eb.v22i2.6351DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Putri, V. K. (2019). Analisis Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar, Suku Bunga Sertifikat Bank Indonesia Dan Suku Bunga Kredit Investasi Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia. JOM Fekon, 4(1), 26–39.Google Scholar ↗
Rachmansyah, M. I. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, BI Rate, Giro Wajib Minimum Dan Non Performing Loans Terhadap Pertumbuhan Kredit. Jurnal Ekonomi & Pendidikan, 18(2), 207–217. https://scholar.archive.org/work/2fscyvbqojcrnorhtt54nnoex4/access/wayback/https://journal.uny.ac.id/index.php/jep/article/download/44100/pdfGoogle Scholar ↗
Rahim, M., Armawaddin, M., Rostin., Syarif, M., & Barani, L. O. S. (2023). Pengaruh Investasi dan Kredit Perbankan terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal Progres Ekonomi Pembangunan (JPEP), 8(2), 171–182. https://journal.uho.ac.id/index.php/jpepGoogle Scholar ↗
Rakhmat, Warjiyo, P., & Sadli, A. M. (2022). The Influence of Exchange Rate and Foreign Capital on the Performance of Inflation Targeting Framework in Indonesia. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 17(5), 1585–1592. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.170523DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Rizkullah, A. R., Suhel, & Andaiyani, S. (2023). Determinants of Credit Growth: An Empirical Study of Commercial Banks in Indonesia. Journal of Applied Economic Research, 22(2), 404–424. https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2023.22.2.017DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Rohmah, N., & Suseno, D. A. (2025). Jurnal REP ( Riset Ekonomi Pembangunan ) INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL FACTORS OF MSME CREDIT GROWTH IN INDONESIA : A MARKOV SWITCHING APPROACH. 10(1), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.31002/rep.v10i1.2585DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Santosa, B. A. (2017). Analisis Inflasi di Indonesia. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Multi Disiplin Ilmu & Call Papers UNISBANK Ke-3 (SENDI_U 3) 2017, 445–452.Google Scholar ↗
Schito, M., Klimavičiūtė, L., & Pál, R. (2024). Investment decisions in a high-inflation environment. In EIB Working Paper (Issue August).Google Scholar ↗
Silvia, E. D., Wardi, Y., & Aimon, H. (2013). Analisis Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Investasi, dan Inflasi di Indonesia. Kajian Ekonomi, I(02), 224–243. https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/7109-ID-analisis-konsumsi-masyarakat-di-indonesia.pdfGoogle Scholar ↗
Sutawijaya, A. (2012). Pengaruh Faktor-Faktor Ekonomi Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia. Jurnal Organisasi Dan Manajemen, 8(2), 85–101. https://doi.org/10.33830/jom.v8i2.237.2012DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Wahyudi, H. (2024). The Influence of Long-term and Short-term Variables on the Oil Prices, Money Supply, Policy Rates, Output Gaps, Rupiah Exchange Rate and Gross Fixed Capital Formation on Inflation in Indonesia. WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, 21, 944–956. https://doi.org/10.37394/23207.2024.21.79DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Yanti, Y. W. T. F., & Soebagiyo, D. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh JUB , Suku Bunga , Dan Nilai Tukar. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 8(2), 265–277.Google Scholar ↗
Ybrayev, Z., Shamar, B., & Mamatova, K. (2024). Domestic inflation decomposition in a small open economy: Evidence from import price dynamics in Kazakhstan. Central Bank Review, 24(4), 100179. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100179DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Yeni, P., Amar, S., & Satrianto, A. (2019). Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) dan Pertumbuhan Kredit terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ecogen, 1(3), 557. https://doi.org/10.24036/jmpe.v1i3.5026DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗
Yulyanti, S., Jamil, P. C., & Diana, H. (2023). Pengaruh Variabel Manroekonomi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Kredit Bank Umum di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi KIAT, 35(2), 19–24.Google Scholar ↗

[refR-1] Anggraeni, D., & Dwiputri, I. N. (2022). Variabel-variabel yang Mempengaruhi Inflasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 11(2), 119–128. https://doi.org/10.23960/jep.v11i2.490DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-2] Anugrah, D. F., Muhardini, R., Soedarmono, W., & Cindyagita, Z. I. (2023). Determinants Of Inflation In Indonesia : Dynamics Over A Decade Determinants Of Inflation In Indonesia : Dynamics Over A Decade. Bank Indonesia, 1(1), 1–56.Google Scholar ↗

[refR-3] Anwar, A. I., & Akbar, A. (2018). The Effect Of Credit To The Inflation Rate Through Gross Domestic Product In Indonesia. EcceS (Economics, Social, and Development Studies), 5(2), 78. https://doi.org/10.24252/ecc.v5i2.7114DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-4] Bank-Indonesia. (2022). Laporan Perekonomian Indonesia 2022. In BI (p. 230). Bank Indonesia. https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/laporan/Documents/LPI_2022.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.comGoogle Scholar ↗

[refR-5] Borio, C., & Gambacorta, L. (2017). Monetary policy and bank diminishing effectiveness? BIS: Monetary and Economic Department, 612.Google Scholar ↗

[refR-6] Brunnermeier, M. K., & Oehmke, M. (2012). Study on the formation and rheological properties of sucrose stearate lamellar liquid crystals. NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH-Working Paper 18398, 38(1), 1–90. https://doi.org/10.1080/01932691.2016.1147360DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-7] Coker, M. (2025). Short-Term Inflation Forecasting In Sierra Leone: A Comparison of Vector Autoregressive VAR(P), Arimax, And Arima Models. SSRN Electronic Journal, 13(05), 9090–9111. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5289305DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-8] Colunga-Ramos, L. F., & Cepeda, L. E. T. (2023). Effects of Supply and Demand Shocks on the Production and Inflation of Manufactured Goods at the Regional Level in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic *.Google Scholar ↗

[refR-9] Coskun, Y., Sencer Atasoy, B., Morri, G., & Alp, E. (2018). Wealth Effects on Household Final Consumption: Stock and Housing Market Channels. In International Journal of Financial Studies (Vol. 6, Issue 2). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6020057DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-10] Deviana, N. (2014). Analisis Pengaruh Suku Bunga Sbi, Suku Bunga Kredit Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia Periode Tahun 2006-2012 Nyimas Deviana. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 12(2), 81–91.Google Scholar ↗

[refR-11] Eklou, K. (2023). The Anatomy of Monetary Policy Transmission in an Emerging Market. IMF Working Papers, 2023(146), 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400247910.001DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-12] Firmansyah, M., Boedirochminarni, A., Riyanto, W. H., & Tsalasa, A. R. A. (2024). Do Cashless Transactions and Credit Distribution Affect Inflation in Indonesia? Ecoplan, 7(2), 144–153. https://doi.org/10.20527/ecoplan.v7i2.728DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-13] Hunjra, A. I., Azam, M., Wellalage, N. H., & Mishra, T. (2025). Inflation bites: The dynamic interdependence between financial market volatility and energy consumption during pandemic. International Review of Economics & Finance, 104, 104651. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2025.104651DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-14] Kitchenham, B., & Charters, S. (2007). Guidelines for performing Systematic Literature Reviews in Software Engineering. Department of Computer Science University of Durham, UK, 126(5), 1–57. https://doi.org/10.1541/ieejias.126.589DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-15] Krisnanda, G. H., & Loissa, A. F. (2023). Determinants of Credit Growth in Commercial Banks in Indonesia. Journal of Tourism Economics and Policy, 3(4), 282–295. https://doi.org/10.38142/jtep.v3i4.881DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-16] Levrero, E. S., & Deleidi, M. (2017). The money creation process: A theoretical and empirical analysis for the US. MPRA Paper, 81970(2116), 0–33.Google Scholar ↗

[refR-17] Mamuaja, R. C., Saerang, I. S., & Tasik, H. H. D. (2024). Analysis of the Impact of Money Supply, Interest Rates, and Inflation on Bank Credit Growth in Indonesia Pre and Post Covid-19 Pandemic. Jurnal EMBA, 12(3), 892–901.Google Scholar ↗

[refR-18] Martauli, D., Amir, A., & Mustika, C. (2020). Analisis inflasi di lihat dari permintaan dan penawaran di Indonesia Tahun 2000-2018. E-Journal Perdagangan Industri Dan Moneter, 8(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.22437/pim.v8i1.7189DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-19] Muritala, T. (2011). Investment , Inflation and Economic Growth : Empirical Evidence from Nigeria. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 2(5), 68–77. https://doi.org/10.5829/idosi.ijee.2012.03.04.121204DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-20] Nanda Fitria, C., Silvia, V., & Seftarita, C. (2024). Does Bank Credit Fluctuation Affect Inflation? Evidence from Indonesia. International Journal of Finance, Economics and Business, 3(2), 107–119. https://doi.org/10.56225/ijfeb.v3i2.329DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-21] Ngo, T. H. H., Hoang, N. M., & Truong, T. T. (2025). Vietnam’s Inflation During the Period 1995 – 2024 And Some Policy Implications. International Journal of Scientific Research and Management (IJSRM), 13(08), 9486–9493. https://doi.org/10.18535/ijsrm/v13i08.em01DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-22] Purnomo, M. H., & Sudjana, K. (2023). Pengaruh Produk Domestik Bruto, Inflasi, Bi Rate Terhadap Pertumbuhan Kredit Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Bbri). Ekonomi & Bisnis, 22(2), 201–208. https://doi.org/10.32722/eb.v22i2.6351DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-23] Putri, V. K. (2019). Analisis Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar, Suku Bunga Sertifikat Bank Indonesia Dan Suku Bunga Kredit Investasi Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia. JOM Fekon, 4(1), 26–39.Google Scholar ↗

[refR-24] Rachmansyah, M. I. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, BI Rate, Giro Wajib Minimum Dan Non Performing Loans Terhadap Pertumbuhan Kredit. Jurnal Ekonomi & Pendidikan, 18(2), 207–217. https://scholar.archive.org/work/2fscyvbqojcrnorhtt54nnoex4/access/wayback/https://journal.uny.ac.id/index.php/jep/article/download/44100/pdfGoogle Scholar ↗

[refR-25] Rahim, M., Armawaddin, M., Rostin., Syarif, M., & Barani, L. O. S. (2023). Pengaruh Investasi dan Kredit Perbankan terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal Progres Ekonomi Pembangunan (JPEP), 8(2), 171–182. https://journal.uho.ac.id/index.php/jpepGoogle Scholar ↗

[refR-26] Rakhmat, Warjiyo, P., & Sadli, A. M. (2022). The Influence of Exchange Rate and Foreign Capital on the Performance of Inflation Targeting Framework in Indonesia. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 17(5), 1585–1592. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.170523DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-27] Rizkullah, A. R., Suhel, & Andaiyani, S. (2023). Determinants of Credit Growth: An Empirical Study of Commercial Banks in Indonesia. Journal of Applied Economic Research, 22(2), 404–424. https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2023.22.2.017DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-28] Rohmah, N., & Suseno, D. A. (2025). Jurnal REP ( Riset Ekonomi Pembangunan ) INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL FACTORS OF MSME CREDIT GROWTH IN INDONESIA : A MARKOV SWITCHING APPROACH. 10(1), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.31002/rep.v10i1.2585DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-29] Santosa, B. A. (2017). Analisis Inflasi di Indonesia. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Multi Disiplin Ilmu & Call Papers UNISBANK Ke-3 (SENDI_U 3) 2017, 445–452.Google Scholar ↗

[refR-30] Schito, M., Klimavičiūtė, L., & Pál, R. (2024). Investment decisions in a high-inflation environment. In EIB Working Paper (Issue August).Google Scholar ↗

[refR-31] Silvia, E. D., Wardi, Y., & Aimon, H. (2013). Analisis Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Investasi, dan Inflasi di Indonesia. Kajian Ekonomi, I(02), 224–243. https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/7109-ID-analisis-konsumsi-masyarakat-di-indonesia.pdfGoogle Scholar ↗

[refR-32] Sutawijaya, A. (2012). Pengaruh Faktor-Faktor Ekonomi Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia. Jurnal Organisasi Dan Manajemen, 8(2), 85–101. https://doi.org/10.33830/jom.v8i2.237.2012DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-33] Wahyudi, H. (2024). The Influence of Long-term and Short-term Variables on the Oil Prices, Money Supply, Policy Rates, Output Gaps, Rupiah Exchange Rate and Gross Fixed Capital Formation on Inflation in Indonesia. WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, 21, 944–956. https://doi.org/10.37394/23207.2024.21.79DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-34] Yanti, Y. W. T. F., & Soebagiyo, D. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh JUB , Suku Bunga , Dan Nilai Tukar. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 8(2), 265–277.Google Scholar ↗

[refR-35] Ybrayev, Z., Shamar, B., & Mamatova, K. (2024). Domestic inflation decomposition in a small open economy: Evidence from import price dynamics in Kazakhstan. Central Bank Review, 24(4), 100179. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100179DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-36] Yeni, P., Amar, S., & Satrianto, A. (2019). Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) dan Pertumbuhan Kredit terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ecogen, 1(3), 557. https://doi.org/10.24036/jmpe.v1i3.5026DOI ↗Google Scholar ↗

[refR-37] Yulyanti, S., Jamil, P. C., & Diana, H. (2023). Pengaruh Variabel Manroekonomi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Kredit Bank Umum di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi KIAT, 35(2), 19–24.Google Scholar ↗